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ZURVY Stream
ZURVY Current Analysis
Most recent update June 14, 2025
Rating: Buy.
Action: Hold
Analysis: One of world’s largest insurers whose plans and forecast include.
Thesis: In a world with increasing frequency of large-scale disasters and diminishing ability to reinsure, the strategy is to cut risk and raise rates. In response to denials of large rate increases, Zurich has wholesale exited markets and underwritten customers off policies. The result is less on the books. Going forward, the lack of willingness by admitted insurers will have two major results: (1) state insurance funds of last resort will add an unsustainable number of customers and assume massive risk; and (2) surplus line suppliers will charge rates that are ten times standard rates. Then, State Insurance commissioners will surrender and allow large rate increases that customers will gladly pay, relative to state and surplus insurers. Of course, the risk is natural disaster wipes out profits or wipes out ZURVY.
Key Information at 6/14/2025: Founded in 1872; HQ - Zurich, Switzerland, 75 million customers, $80 bn gross written policies and premiums. Highest ROE among peers at 25%, highest European credit ratings. 2024-$46.6bn gross written premiums, 4% premium increase, 92.8% combined ratio, $.2 bn operating profit. 53% North America, 34% EMEA.
Next Earnings: August 7, 2025, 2025 half-year results, November 6, 2025
Estimates at 6/14/2025: $51.25 bn revenue for 2025 and $53.82 bn for 2026.
2027 Targets: After-tax operating profit target greater than 23%, up from 20%, EPS GAGR 9%, up from 8%, cumulative cash remittances $19.0 bn, up from $13.5 bn, Swiss Solvency Test, greater than 160%.
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