Skip to content
Technically Speaking
S&P 500 Technical Analysis June 13, 2025
Basic technical analysis indicates that the S&P 500 [Index Fund] could decline by another 2.7% to 4.5% to $581 to 573, respectively.
SPY gapped down to between the $525 to $540 level on U.S. President Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement to impose tariffs on almost all international trading partners. After quickly bottoming. the market traded choppily for about a month, gapping up from $564 to $582 between May 9, 2025, and May 12, 2025, on news that the United States had struck a trade deal with the United Kingdom.
Trading has been bullish since then, finally rolling over the last few days through June 13, 2025.
Meanwhile aggregate earnings expectations have declined significantly.
At June 13, 2025, LSEG forecast SP& 500 aggregate revenue and EPS growth for 2Q2025 - [3.6% / 5.7%], 3Q2025 - [4.1% / 7.9%], 4Q2025 - [4.9% / 6.2%], 1Q2026 - [6.2% / 16.5%], 2025 - [4.5% / 8.4%] and 2026 - [6.0% / 14.0%].
Three months ago, on March 14, 2025, when SPY closed at $562.81, those estimates were 2Q2025 - [4.4% / 10.4%], 3Q2025 - [5.0% / 12.6%], 4Q2025 - [5.8% / 11.2%], 1Q2026 - [6.9% / 17.8%], 2025 - [5.0% / 12.1%] and 2026 - [none].
Within the last few weeks, news sources reported that the Trump administration was expecting to make a conclusive announcement of a trade deal with China. The result was an interim suspension.
Meanwhile, recent CPI and PPI inflation data has been moderate. However, looking into the numbers shows that the PPI cost component rose higher than the CPI cost of goods components, indicating 2H2025 earnings pressure, 2H2025 consumer pressure or both.
Next week, the macro reports include Tuesday, June 17, 2025’s , , and and Wednesday, June 18, 2025’s 6/18/2025 - Housing Starts & Permits, FOMC Interest Rate. U.S. President Trump has already indicated he intends to appoint a different Federal Reserve Chair than Jerome Powell, who has resisted political pressures to reduce the Federal Reserve Target fund rate, as the ECB has.
We expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged as well as signal no change for longer than expected. The Housing sentiment has been weak, and we expect confidence, permits and starts to reflect that.
We expect the overall market to be in interim sell mode, with a better opportunity to buy 2.7% to 4.5% to $581 to 573, respectively.
Want to print your doc?
This is not the way.
This is not the way.
Try clicking the ⋯ next to your doc name or using a keyboard shortcut (
CtrlP
) instead.