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Individual Stock Reports
ENPH
Most recent update June 6, 2025
(IR) has $5.4 bn cap and $1.8 bn debt & 0.4 bn in other long term liabilities. ENPH was founded in 2006, is headquartered in Fremont, CA and employs 2,781. ENPH designs and sells inverters, EV chargers, as well as software to monitor and control property solar electricity usage. Key statistics include $1.4 bn revenue, $1.28 EPS, 46.95% GPM, with 38.4 P/E Ratio.
Analysis of past financial is that between 2019 and through 2022, ENPH was a market darling stock rising from $2 per share to more than $300 per share, based on consistently beating high revenue growth and earnings expectations. However, starting in December 2022, ENPH stock price started to decline precipitously, driven by shrinking sales and earnings. The stock price decline was caused by higher interest rates and new, less favorable pricing the California utilities were required to repurchase electricity generated by solar panels. Higher interest that increased the cost of financing residential solar systems. Lower payments to solar system owners by utilities increased the time to get payback for the investment and lowered the overall saving and value of the systems. Thereby, demand for ENPH products was reduced.
ENPH management has consistently and incorrectly, forecast a “bottom” for sales declines on several of the most recent quarterly earnings releases.
The thesis is that ENPH had a parabolic stock price increase because it had stellar financial metrics, during a period of rapid growth in demand for solar panels. During the past two and a half years of challenging industry and macroeconomic environment, ENPH’s sales have shrunk, but its gross margins have improved. ENPH has successfully entered the battery storage market, which is an essential component of Solar Systems in the current environment of less favorable pricing for solar system owners to utilities. Battery shipments were 170.1 MWh in 1Q2025 versus 152.4 MWh in 4Q2024.
ENPH guided to $340 to $380 million in revenue, including 160 to 180 MWh of batteries in 2Q2025, with expected gross margin of 42% to 45%, and operating expenses between $78.0 and $82.0 million. Yahoo consensus estimates are for $0.63 on $359.2 million in sales.
The chart has not shown signs of an interim bottom. It is almost certain that sales will accelerate in the future with expanding margins, thereby driving significant earnings growth. The question is when? macro numbers show that the consumer is decreasing spending and US interest rates are not declining. Right now, the stock seems like a wait for a lower price.
Expected report July 22, 2025.
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