Wall Street Data Points

7/21/2025 - Lori Calvasino RBC (1) thinks small caps are tied to rate cut expectations & RBC had pushed back rate grl expectations of rate cuts to December; (2) MAG 7 growth expectations justify their P%E ratios; (3) S&P valuation did not get cheap in sell off and is extended here.

7/21/2025 - Elaine Ray London Business School said on Bloomberg Radio interview, although 2025 dollar weakness was driven in part by overbought dollar conditions and there is a lack of infrastructure / circumstances to drive liquidity and demand that makes treasury markets the largest & most liquid, investors appear to feel there's a loss of trust in the dollar from tariffs and fiscal account weakness.

7/17/2025 - SF Federal Reserve President Mary Daly says in an interview with Bloomberg Radio that the rate environment is restrictive and that two rate cuts seem appropriate for 2025, but the r* or natural rate is greater than the 2.5% pre-pandemic rate. Bizarrely, Daly says that inflation and tariff related inflation has not appeared in the numbers, despite the June 2025 accelerating CPI.

7/17/2025 - Bloomberg radio interviewee, ETF fund manager notes that pending potential deregulation from Trump administration driven U.S. Congress had the potential to be widely popular versus the tariff and OBBBA, which were unpopular. Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent has said that deregulation of large banks meant decreasing restrictions on lending. Deregulation and increased lending could disproportionately benefit small & mid cap stocks.

7/10/2025 -

Realtor.cm⁠

reported that de-listings, meaning removal of a residential property for sale, jumped 47% nationwide for May 2025, versus a year ago. Year to date 2025, de-listings are up 35% from the same period in 2024. Active inventory was up 29% in June 2025 and newly listed homes increased 6.2%.

7/9/2025 Marketwatch’s Mark Hulbert reported that Joanne Hsu, the Director of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey says the market may be missing a message from the discrepancy between the Consumer Confidence Index Michigan and the Consumer Sentiment Survey. The former measures US Consumer’s confidence in the US economy and the latter measures US Consumers’ confidence in their own personal finances. Today, the difference is about 45, well into the top decile of historical differences since 1979. Since 1979, when the decile has been in the highest 10% the S&P 500 stock performance has underperformed long term averages, being 3.9%, 2.8%, and -2% for the following 12 months, 5 years and 10 years, respectively. Meanwhile, since 1979 when the decile has been in the lowest 10% the S&P 500 stock performance has met or exceeded long term averages, being 13.9%, 14.2%, and 9.9% for the following 12 months, 5 years and 10 years, respectively.

7/9/2025. Bloomberg reports that the average short interest of Russell 2000 semiconductors stocks was 7%, versus 3% for the average S&P 500 stock.

NY Fed Reports Consumer Inflation Expectations 3%, lower than previous

7/9/2025 - New York Federal Reserve reports that consumer inflation expectations for the pending 12 months was 3%, 0.2% lower than the prior month and the second consecutive month of decline. Note - the cut off for the survey was June 30, 2025, meaning the expectations did not include U.S. President Trump’s latest July 2025-round of tariff related saber rattling.

6/30/2025 - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Tax Proposal will reduce deficit

6/30/2025 - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says (i) current tax proposal will reduce US Federal Deficit, in part because growth will exceed to the 1.8% annual growth under the CBOE model; (ii) US has the lowest interest sovereign 10-year; (iii) has no answer as to how 18 major trade deals will get finalized by July 9, 2025; (iv) possible tiddle-wave of US-backed stablecoins will drive demand for US treasuries.

6/18/2025 - New Mexico is US Second Largest Solar Installs

6/23/2025 - Emily Lovell Chief Investment Officer for New Mexico Development Agency said that New Mexico has the second largest deployment of solar panels in the United States. Lovell notes that all trends indicate electricity demand is poised to grow and that solar is the quickest way to get additional capacity on the grid. Lovel

6/18/2025 - Newmark sees commercial leasing conditions improving

Liz Heart, Leasing Executive for Newmark observed the following commercial real estate during an interview on Bloomberg - 10% increased foot traffic, with a significant number looking to expand. Commercial real estate demand is strong and vacancy rate is decreasing, driven by tech, and particularly AI, the second largest segment of renters. SF and NYC are back to pre-pandemic demand. Demand for trophy properties are dominant in NYC. Malls are back with 90% occupancy rate, focused on shopping experience. Possible pressure on west coast demand in port towns from tariffs, but inland western cities, like Phoenix with strong intermodal infrastructure are seeing increasing demand.

6/18/2025 - Lennar’s Report suggest continued weakness in residential real estate.

Lennar, the second-largest homebuilder in the country, reported an 8.6 percent year-over-year drop in its average sale price in the second quarter of 2025, as the ongoing slump in the U.S. housing market continues to affect developers. The average price of a new home built by Lennar was $389,000 between April and June, down from $426,000 during that same time frame a year earlier and $409,000 in the first quarter of 2025.

6/13/2025 - Schwab says PPI and CPI data show tariffs not passed on to consumers, benign for inflation

Omar Aguilar, Schwab Private Client executive said in an interview with Bloomberg radio that Schwab analysts had noted the cost of goods component of May 2025 PPI was materially higher than the cost of goods component of May 2025 PPI. That fact indicates that corporations are not passing on increased costs to consumers. Omar Aguilar suggested that continuation of that trend could pressure corporate earnings in 2H2025. What this means? Incrementally negative for S&P500 Earnings.

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