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Economic Releases
8/1/2025 - Employment Situation. July 2025 Labor report was 4.2% unemployed, up 0.1% from June 2025. Total non-farm payroll was up 73k from June 2025. But, May & June 2025 non-farm payrolls were revised down 125k to up only 19k, and down 133k, up only 14k, resulting in 258k fewer jobs. Long term unemployed were up 178k to 1.8 mm. Total unemployment was 7.2 mm, with those who want a job but have been out of the employment market for so long that they are no longer counted as unemployed at 6.2 mm, little changed over the month, but up 568k in 2025. 9/5/2025, 10/3/2025, 11/7/2025, 12/5/2025.
7/31/2025 - 7/26/2025 - 218K, up 1K from the unrevised 7/19/2026 level of 217K, four-week moving average 221K, down 3.5K. Next release 8/7/2025.
7/31/2025 - Employment compensation index rose 1% for the 2Q2025 end June 30, 2025, 1.0% for wages and benefits up 0.7%. 10/31/2025.
7/31/2025 - - was 2.6% annually, ex. food & energy 2.8%, month over month change 0.3% and 0.3% core. BEA PCE Release Calendar 8/28/2025, 9/26/205, 10/31/2025, 11/26/2025, 12/19/2025.
7/30/2025 - PMI dropped to 49.3 in July 2025 from June 2025’s 3-month high of 49.7, missing expectations and the fourth consecutive month of contraction in factory activity. [Prior 49.7 in June 2025 from May’s 49.5, matching expectations while marking the third consecutive month of contraction in factory activity]. Next release 8/31/2025.
7/30/2025 - - growth 3.0% percent versus -0.5% in 1Q2025, driven largely by decline in imports. Real final expenditures were up 1.2%, a slower pace than the 1Q2025 1.9% number. 2Q2025 2nd Estimate 8/28/2025 at 8:30 am; 2Q2025 2nd Est. 9/25/2025 at 8:30 am; 3Q2025 Advance US GDP 10/30/2025 at 8:30 am; 3Q2025 2nd Est. US GDP 11/26/2025 at 8:30 am; 3Q2025 3rd Est. US GDP 12/19/2025 at 8:30 am.
7/30/2025 - Euro Area GDP up 1.4%. Next release 10/30/2025. [Forecast 1.2% versus prior of 1.5%].
7/30/2025 - June 2025 - a 0.8% decrease in monthly pending home sales, and a 2.8% decrease in year over year. Next releases existing homes 8/21/2025 and pending homes sales 8/28/2025.
7/29/2025 - The June 2025 Consumer Confidence rose 2.0 points in July 2025 to 97.2, from 95.2 in June 2025, which had been revised up by 2.2 points. The future expectations component rose 4.5 points to 74.4, but remained below 80, which the Conference Board says indicates recession in the near future. This was the sixth straight month of below 80 future expectations. Next release is 8/26/2025.
7/29/2025 - - June 2025 JOLTS - little changed at 7.4 million in June 2025. Both hires and total separations were little changed at 5.2 million and
5.1 million, respectively; within separations, quits (3.1 million) were little changed while layoffs and discharges (1.6 million) were unchanged. May 2025 job openings was revised down by 57K. JOLTS Report Calendar 9/3/2025.
7/29/2025 - Advance June 2025. 907.7 bn, up 0.2%, 8/29/2025, 9/25/2025, 10/29/2025, 11/26/2025, 12/29/2025.
7/25/2025 - Advance June 2025 311.8, down 9.8%, revised up $0.4 bn on the May 2025 $344, up 16.6%. Note excluding transportation that was driven by May 2025 airline orders, orders were up 0.2%. dates Full - 8/4/2025; Advance - 8/26/2025; Full - 9/3/2025; Advance 9/25/2025; Full - 10/2/205; Advance - 10/27/2025; Full 11/4/2025; Advance 11/26/2025; Full 12/5/2025; Advance 12/24/2025.
7/24/2025 - [7/19/2025 - 217K, down 4k from 7/12/2025 221k; 4-week moving average was 224.5K, down 5K from the 7/12/2025 unrevised 4-week average of 229.5K]. Next release 7/31/2025.
7/24/2025 - Interest Rate Decision [7/24/2025 - deposit facility, the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility will remain unchanged at 2.00%, 2.15% and 2.40% respectively on modest expansion in manufacturing, robust labor; June 2025 inflation of 2.0%, up from 1.9% in May 2025, labor compensation growth down to 3.8% in 1Q2025; trade risks down and geopolitical risks up; credit conditions within a range from 4.0%]. 9/11/2025, 10/30/2025, 12/18/2025, 2/5/2026, 3/19/2026, 4/20/2026, 6/11/2026, 7/23/2026, 9/10/2026, 10/29/2026, 12/17/2026.
7/24/2025 - . Flash US output July 2025 54.4 vs. June 2025 52.9, a 7-month high; July 2025 Flash PMI US Services Business Activities 55.2 vs. June 2025 52.9 a 7-month high, July 2025 Flash US Manufacturing Output July 2025 51.2 versus 53.1, a 2-month low; July 2025 Flash PMI Manufacturing 49.5 vs. June 2025 52.9, a 7-month low. Key commentary on inflation in services as well as inputs, close to Fall 2022 levels of changes. Next release final 8/1/2025, August Flash 8/28/2025.
7/24/2025 - of Revised June 2025 [June 2025 - 1.397 Permits, up 0.2% from May 2025 revised 1.394, down 4.4% year over year; May 2025 - Permits: 1.39 mm, down 2.0% from revised April 2025 rate of 1.42 mm, and down 1.0% from May 2024 1.41 mm]. Advance July 2025 on 8/19/2025 and Revised 8/25/2025.
7/23/2025 - - Down 2.7% to 3.93 mm, lower than the Forecast 4.0 mm. Median price was $435,300, up 2% year over year. Prior 4.03 mm, up 0.8% sequentially, down 0.7% annually]. Next release 8/21/2025.
7/23/2025 - The Conference Board declined 0.3% in June 2025. May 2025 was revised up to no change in May 2025, from –0.1% originally reported. LEI fell by 2.8% over 1H2025, faster than the –1.3% contraction in 2H2024. Next release 8/21/2025.
7/18/2025 - of June 2025 [June 2025 new permits were 1.397 mm, 0.2% above the revised May 2025 rate of 1.394 mm, but is 4.4% below the June 2024 rate of 1.461 mm; 1.39 mm, down 2.0% from revised April 2025 rate of 1.42 mm, and down 1.0% from May 2024 1.41 mm]. Revised 7/24/2025; Advance July 2025 on 8/19/2025.
7/18/2025 - University of Michigan July 2025 Consumer Sentiment rose to a five-month high of 61.8 from 60.7 in June 2025. Inflation expectations for 2026 were down to 4.4% from 5%.
7/18/2025 - July 2025 Homebuilder confidence up 1 to 33 from a month ago, but down from 41 a year ago. 38% cut prices by an average of 5% and 62% used incentives.
7/17/2025 - June 2025 [June 2025 - up 0.6% from revised May 2025 $715.5 bn, down 0.9%, versus forecast - 0.2%; prior May 2025 $715.4 bn down 0.9%, versus revised April 2025 of 722.0, down 0.1%]. 9/16/2025, 10/16/2025, 11/14/2025, 12/17/2025.
7/17/2025 - . [7/12/2025 - 221K, down 7K from the 228K previous, revised up by 1K, four-week average 229.5 average down 0.625 from revised 235.5 revised down by 0.250 versus Prior End 7/5/2025 - 227k, down 5k, from the 232K figure, revised down by 1k, from 233. 4-week average 235K, down 5.75k from revised 241.25, down 0.25K].
7/16/2025 - - June 2025
[unchanged for June 2025, with increase of 0.3% for goods, offset by a decrease of 0.1%. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 2.3 percent for the 12 months ended in June 2025. Forecast - 0.3%; prior 0.1%]. 8/14/2025.7/15/2025 - June CPI was 0.3% and 2.7% with Core 0.2% and 2.9% versus forecast 0.3%, 2.6%; Core - 0.2% and 2.9%; prior 0.1% & 2.4%; Core - 0.1% & 2.8%. The next release is 8/12/2025.
7/14/2025 - , exceeding the 5.1% annual forecast and equal to 4Q2025. Industrial output rose at its fastest pace since June 2021. Retail sales grew at a faster rate than in the last year, and the jobless rate eased off of a two-year-high.
7/11/2025 - . [June 2025 $526 bn in, vs $499 bn out, cumulative 2025 4.0 trn in, vs. $5.346 trn out, net negative 3.338 trn; - $371 bn in, $671 bn out, Cumulative 2025 - $3.5 tn in, 4.8 tn out]. Next release 8/14/2025.
7/10/2025 - [End 7/5/2025 - 227k, down 5k, from the 232K figure, revised down by 1k, from 233. 4-week average 235K, down 5.75k from revised 241.25, down 0.25K]. Next release 7/17/2025.
7/9/2025 -
Minutes Meeting of June 17-18. Two member supported cutting rates if data “evolved in line” with their expectations. Consensus was for two 25 bs cuts. Noted Treasury yields up, GDP growth stronger than expected, employment market strong, with some underlying initial signs of weakness - remain attentive. Inflation coming down, but still elevated and Core inflation exceeds target. Risks weighed to lower GDP and higher unemployment.7/9/2025 - May 2025. May 2025 Inventories $905.5 down 0.3%, revised April 908.3, up 0.1%, with sales were $697.2 down 0.3% sequentially, but up 4.8% year over year. Compares to April 2025 previous $907.8 for April 2025 up 0.2%, with March revised of 907.1 up 0.2%. Next release 8/7/2025.
7/8/2025 - increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.2% to $5.05 trillion. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent. Fed. US Consumer Credit. May 2025 . Next release 8/7/2025.
7/8/2025 - China Inflation. rose by 0.1% in June 2025 versus a year ago, reversing a 0.1% drop in the previous three months and exceeding a flat reading.
7/3/2025 - Initial unemployment 233,000, versus 240,000 forecast and 237,000 previous.
7/3/2025 - - unemployment, 4.1%, down from 4.2%, and lower than forecast of 4.3%, with 147,000 job growth, higher than prior 139,000 and forecast, 115,000, 4.3%. Average wage increase 3.7%, stable 62.5% participation rate. Comment - data Fed can use to keep rates unchanged. Next release 8/1/2025.
7/2/2025 - down 33,000 versus prior of 29,000 and forecast of 100,000.
7/1/2025 - 48.5, down 0.2%, New Orders and Backlogs Contracting, Production and Employment Contracting, Supplier Deliveries Slowing, Raw Materials Inventories Contracting; Customers’ Inventories Too Low, Prices Increasing; Exports and Imports Contracting
7/1/2025 - JPM Morgan rose by 2.3 points to a four-month high of 51.3 in June 2025, up from 49.0 in May 2025. This was the best month-on-month gain in its level since June 2022
7/1/2025 - final down 0.3% monthly and down 3.2% annually, previous -0.4%, lower than forecast -0.1%;
7/1/2025 - May 2025 7.8 million higher than April 7.4 million, and forecast 7.3 million, shows a surprising minor indication of strengthening in the job market. Next release 7/29/2025.
7/1/2025 - Eurostat’s up to 2%, from May 2025 of 1.9%, next release 8/1/2025
6/26/2025 - Initial jobless claims for June 21, 2025 were 236,000, down from 246,000 on June 14, 2025 and lower than the forecast 246,000.
6/26/2025 - were up 16.6%, but excluding transportation, up only 0.5%. April 2025 figure was 6.6% and the May 2025 forecast was for 6.5%. Commentary was that Boeing orders drove the transportation sector’s large impact on the overall number.
: 7/3/2025 - full; 7/25/2025 - advance; 8/4/2025 - full; 8/26/2025 - advance; 9/3/2025 - full; 9/25/2025 - advance; 10/2/2205- full; 10/27/2025 - advance; 11/4/2025 full; 11/26/2025 - advance; 12/5/2025 full.
6/26/2025 -
s was down 0.5%, down from 1st updated of -0.2%, and lower than the +0.2% forecast. However, the bulk of the GDP decline was driven by pre-tariff imports, which reduces GDP, and private sector growth was a moderate 1.9%.: 7/30/2025 2Q2025 Advance; 8/18/2025 2Q2025 2nd Revision; 9/25/2025 2Q2025 3rd Revision; 10/30/2025 3Q2025 Advance; 11/26/2025 3Q2025 2nd Revision; 12/19/2025 3Q2025 GDP 3rd revision
6/26/2025 - were 623,000, a 7-month low, down 13.7% annually, and lower than the 695,000 forecast. Median home sales price was up 3.7%. : 7/18/2025, 2025; 7/24/2025 -revised; 8/19/2025; 8/25/2025 - revised; 9/17/2025; 9/24/2025 - revised; 10/17/2025; 10/24/2025 - revised; 11/19/2025; 11/26/2025 - revised; 12/16/2025; 12/23/2025 - revised.
6/24/2025 - home prices were up, 2.7%, growth was down 0.7% sequentially from and lower than the 4% forecast.
6/23/2025 - services was 53.1, down 0.7%, manufacturing was 52.0, unchanged.
6/23/2025 - May 2025, month over month: 0.8% increase in existing-home sales -- seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.03 million in May 2025; 6.2% increase in unsold inventory -- 1.54 million units equal to 4.6 months' supply. May 2025, year over year: 0.7% decrease in existing-home sales; 1.3% increase in median existing-home sales price to $422,800. Lowest rate since 2009. Conforming mortgage 6.81%: Average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage as of June 18 according to Freddie Mac, down from 6.84% one week before and 6.87% one year ago. Reported by
. 6/18/2025 - May 2025 , Completions 1.39, 1.26, 1.53 versus April 2025 - 1.41, 1.36, 1.48.
6/17/2025 - NAHB’S fell 2 points to 32, compared with April 2025 fall of 6 points to 34, driven by the 8 point fall in the heaviest weighted component, present sales. Sales expectations dropped 1 point and traffic dropped 2 points. 34% of builders reduced prices, the highest since December 2023.
6/17/2025 - U.S. Census Bureau’s May 2025 down 0.9% and April 2025 revised to down 0.1%. Next releases 7/17/2025, 8/15/2025, 9/16/2025, 10/16/2025, 11/14/2025, 12/17/2025.
6/13/2025 - University of indicates consumer sentiment for , reversing a five-month downward trend and up from 52.2 prior month, and down from 68.3 a year ago.
6/12/2025 - Initial jobless 248,000, roughly inline with expectations
6/12/2025 - U.S. reports sequential increase in PPI, 2.6% year over year.
6/11/2025 - U.S. reports sequential increase in
, 2.4% year over year.6/10/2025 - Barrons reports that total value of all crypto is $3.3 trillion, with $2.1 trillion in Bitcoin, as compared to gold $23 trillion and equities $115 trillion.
6/6/2025 - US Federal Reserve reported that decreased 0.3% year over year to a total of 4.18 trillion. Next report for May 2025 on July 8, 2025.
6/6/2025 - from - 139,000 new jobs, 4.2% unemployment, unchanged
5/30/2025 - Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that spending increased 0.2% month over month, down from 0.7%, 0.4% in March & February 2025.
5/29/2025 - Redfin reported that home sellers outnumber buyers by 500,000.
5/27/2025 - Redfin reports the first monthly sequential price drop in the largest metropolitan market since 2022 [Housing, Macro].
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