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Daily Report 9/30/2025
🧠 Macro Narrative (Sep 27–Sep 30, 2025)
U.S. personal spending rose +0.6% in August, beating expectations by 0.1 ppt and marking the strongest monthly gain since March. Core PCE held steady at +0.2% MoM, keeping the 3-month annualized pace at +2.4%, down from +3.1% in May. Consumer confidence surprised to the upside at 97.4 (vs 96.0 forecast), while JOLTS job openings ticked up to 7.18M, lifting the openings-to-unemployed ratio to 1.3x. In China, NBS Manufacturing PMI missed at 49.4, extending contraction for a fifth month. Eurozone flash inflation cooled to 2.0% YoY (vs 2.2% forecast), reinforcing dovish ECB expectations2.
📅 Upcoming Macro Releases (Sep 30–Oct 2, 2025)
Table 2
Date
Region
Release
Agency
Forecast
Prior
Yr-Ago
Date
Region
Release
Agency
Forecast
Prior
Yr-Ago
Sep 30
🇺🇸
Consumer Confidence (Sep)
Conf. Board
96.0
96.0
95.0
Sep 30
🇺🇸
JOLTS Job Openings (Aug)
BLS
7.10M
7.10M
8.83M
Oct 1
🇺🇸
ADP Employment (Sep)
ADP
+145K
+177K
+210K
Oct 1
🇺🇸
ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
ISM
47.8
47.6
50.2
Oct 1
🇺🇸
Construction Spending (MoM, Aug)
Census
+0.4%
+0.7%
+0.6%
Oct 2
🇺🇸
Factory Orders (MoM, Aug)
Census
−0.2%
−0.3%
+0.5%
Oct 2
🇺🇸
Durable Goods Orders (Final Aug)
Census
−0.5%
−0.5%
+0.7%
Oct 2
🇪🇺
Unemployment Rate (Aug)
Eurostat
6.2%
6.2%
6.5%
There are no rows in this table
⚠️ Key Stress Indicators (U.S., Sep 2025)
Table 3
Indicator
Latest
Prev
Yr-Ago
Trend
Commentary
Indicator
Latest
Prev
Yr-Ago
Trend
Commentary
Credit Card Delinquency Rate
3.1%
2.9%
2.4%
↑
+0.2 ppt MoM; highest since 2011
Auto Loan Delinquency Rate
2.5%
2.3%
1.9%
↑
+0.6 ppt YoY; risk rising in subprime segment
Mortgage Delinquency Rate
1.8%
1.7%
1.5%
↑
+0.3 ppt YoY; concentrated in Sunbelt metros
Consumer Bankruptcies (monthly)
38,200
36,900
33,100
↑
+15.4% YoY; highest since mid-2020
HY Credit Spread
395 bps
420 bps
390 bps
↓
−25 bps MoM; easing despite rising defaults
Challenger Job Cuts (YTD)
482,000
451,000
398,000
↑
+21% YoY; tech and retail lead
Rent-to-Income Ratio (Median)
32.6%
32.4%
30.9%
↑
+1.7 ppt YoY; affordability stress intensifies
There are no rows in this table
📈 Market Recap (Sep 30, 2025)
Table 4
Index
Close
Daily Change
Adv/Decl
52W Highs/Lows
Index
Close
Daily Change
Adv/Decl
52W Highs/Lows
S&P 500
4,612
−0.3%
210 / 290
18 / 12
Nasdaq 100
15,420
−0.5%
88 / 112
9 / 7
Dow Jones
35,280
−0.2%
14 / 16
3 / 2
10Y Treasury Yield
4.38%
−4 bps
—
—
HY Credit Spread
395 bps
−5 bps
—
—
There are no rows in this table
📅 High-Level Earnings Calendar (Oct 1–Oct 4, 2025)
Table 5
Date
Company
Sector
EPS Est
Prior EPS
Date
Company
Sector
EPS Est
Prior EPS
Oct 1
Jefferies (JEF)
Financials
$0.80
$0.74
Oct 2
Carnival (CCL)
Consumer
$1.32
$1.28
Oct 2
Vail Resorts (MTN)
Leisure
−$4.72
−$4.65
Oct 3
Progress Software (PRGS)
Tech
$1.30
$1.27
Oct 4
Delta Air Lines (DAL)
Transport
$1.92
$1.88
There are no rows in this table
Source: Yahoo Finance Earnings Calendar
📐 Relative Valuation Snapshot (Sep 30, 2025)
Table 6
Index / Sector
Forward P/E
Trailing P/E
PEG Ratio
Price-to-Sales
Price-to-Book
Index / Sector
Forward P/E
Trailing P/E
PEG Ratio
Price-to-Sales
Price-to-Book
S&P 500
18.2x
20.1x
1.6
2.4x
3.9x
Nasdaq 100
23.5x
25.8x
2.1
4.8x
6.2x
Russell 2000
14.7x
16.3x
1.4
1.8x
2.1x
Financials (XLF)
12.3x
13.1x
1.1
1.9x
1.4x
Tech (XLK)
24.8x
26.5x
2.2
5.1x
7.3x
Energy (XLE)
10.5x
11.2x
0.9
1.3x
1.6x
There are no rows in this table
📅 Historical Macro Releases (Sep 27–Sep 30, 2025)
Table 7
Date
Region
Release
Agency
Actual
Forecast
Prior
Yr-Ago
Date
Region
Release
Agency
Actual
Forecast
Prior
Yr-Ago
Sep 27
🇺🇸
Core PCE (MoM, Aug)
BEA
+0.2%
+0.2%
+0.2%
+0.3%
Sep 27
🇺🇸
Personal Spending (MoM, Aug)
BEA
+0.6%
+0.5%
+0.5%
+0.3%
Sep 27
🇨🇳
Industrial Profits (YTD YoY, Aug)
NBS
+0.9%
—
+1.7%
+1.9%
Sep 29
🇺🇸
Pending Home Sales (MoM, Aug)
NAR
−0.4%
+0.1%
+1.7%
−1.2%
Sep 29
🇺🇸
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Sep)
Dallas Fed
−1.8
—
−7
−9
Sep 29
🇪🇺
Economic Sentiment Index (Sep)
EC
95.2
95.1
95.2
96.8
Sep 30
🇺🇸
Consumer Confidence (Sep)
Conf. Board
97.4
96.0
96.0
95.0
Sep 30
🇺🇸
JOLTS Job Openings (Aug)
BLS
7.18M
7.10M
7.10
There are no rows in this table
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